2024 Election Map Based On The NEWEST Poll From ALL 50 STATES!

As Trump surges in the latest polling released after the presidential debate today we're going to be taking a look at the 2024 electoral map based on the single newest poll conducted from all 50 states and we're going to do this a little bit differently we're going to fill in the map based on poll closing order so you can see how the map will actually fill in on Election night in case you didn't know voting doesn't end in every single state at the same time voting will end for first on many east coast states and then slowly the map will fill in from east to west and so we'll begin with the six states where voting will end at 700 p.m. eastern time this is our first poll closing and so these states will be the first ones to fill in on November 5th and so we're going to begin in Georgia this is one of the most competitive states in the entire election in fact the peach state was the closest state in the 2020 election Joe Biden won it by less than a quarter of a percentage point this was the only time Democrats have won Georgia since Bill Clinton back in 1992 and it's very unlikely that KLA Harris is going to perform just as well or better than the incumbent president in 2016 Trump won the state by over five points Georgia is still fundamentally Republican and he is on track to winning it back this November the former president leads by 3% in the most recent quinc University poll this is a pretty good margin for Donald Trump who was expected to lose based on polling in 2020 by a pretty wide margin the fact that he's even ahead here really says a lot about just how much better he is performing in this election compared to the last the peach state is going to be the first state we fill in and it will be lean Republican moving on to Virginia this is the other competitive state in yellow the Commonwealth of Virginia went to Joe Biden by a double digit margin in the last election in 2020 the state really wasn't all that close but over the last four years Virginia has taken a sizable shift to the right just one year after Biden was elected the state elected a republican Governor lieutenant governor and attorney general and today KL Harris leads by just 5.3% in the polling average one poll released last month had her leading by just three points if kabala Harris can't win Virginia by more than five she is basically guaranteed to lose the election even Hillary Clinton won the state by five points8 years ago and so Virginia is going to be lean blue a lot more competitive than it really should be now the four remaining States they're pretty easily going to go to one candidate or the other Trump is going to win Indiana Kentucky and South Carolina by a solid margin for a third time in a row while KLA Harris will carry Vermont the most liberal state in the country next up at 7:30 voting will end in Ohio West Virginia and North Carolina North Carolina being by far the most crucial State out of all seven of the Battleground states which includes Georgia North Carolina as well as Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania Nevada and Arizona out of all seven of these three states North Carolina is the only one that went to Donald Trump in both of the last two elections and so it really is a state that he must win and luckily for him according to the polling average in the Tar Hill State he leads by 0.4% and according to the most recent poll conducted here this is a poll conducted after the presidential debate the debate was on September 10th the survey period for this was from the 11th to the 13th and Trump leads by a whopping three-point margin North Carolina isn't even going to be tilt like it was in 2020 it is going to be a lean Red State the Tar Hill state has only gone blue once since 1976 and that was when Barack Obama won it by a third of a percentage point in 2008 KL Harris is not going to be the second Democrat to carry North Carolina in the last 50 years while Ohio Donald Trump is doing very well there as well the former president leads by 10% in the most recent Emerson College and the hill pole 10 percentage points double digits for Trump in a state that voted for Barack Obama just 12 years ago Ohio is now very much in the Republican column it is a GOP State and it will be likely read on our map while West Virginia tends tends to be the second most Republican state in the country it is going to be solid red only Wyoming is further to the right and 30 minutes later at 8:00 p.m. eastern time we have the largest pole closing of the night the combined electoral count here is 171 this makes up for nearly a third of the entire electoral college and so we're going to begin by filling in the solid States for both candidates here a lot of these states are going to be decided by margins of 15 percentage points or more for example Donald Trump is easily going to win in States like Oklahoma Missouri Tennessee Mississippi and Alabama while kamla Harris has a clear advantage in Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Maryland and the District of Colombia while Illinois New Jersey and Delaware are going to be slightly more competitive with the state of Maine as a whole being a lean Blue State the first district being solid blue and the second District solid red and before we move on 83% of you guys are not currently subscribed so please take the time to subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and follow me on Twitter for daily political updates Link in the description below moving on now to the three remaining States one of which is potentially the most important state in the entire country with Pennsylvania Trump is unbeatable he's a ready favored to win in North Carolina and Georgia and if he wins every other non-competitive Republican state as long as he wins in Pennsylvania he is going to get past 270 electoral votes KL Harris can win Wisconsin Michigan Nevada and Arizona it will matter at that point if Pennsylvania goes red the election will go to Trump and so right now Pennsylvania is among the most competitive states in the entire country KL Harris leads by 0.1% in the polling average but this is mainly because of outlier polls that have heavily favored her over over the last two months but Trump is taking back this polling average in fact he leads in the latest poll from the Trafalgar group the CBS poll is a tie so we're going to refer to the second most recent poll and the Trafalgar group has Trump leading by two percentage points so the Keystone State is going to be tilt red on our map and that is going to be enough for him to win the presidency if everything else goes as it should and this is not at all impossible Trump won Pennsylvania back in 2016 by nearly 1 percentage point this is a state he's won before and currently he is on track to Win It Again moving on to New Hampshire this is a state that was very competitive when Hillary Clinton won it by 0.37% in 2016 Donald Trump almost won the Granite State in fact only one state was more competitive than New Hampshire in 2016 and that was Michigan Hillary Clinton lost Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by larger margins then she won in New Hampshire now Joe Biden did do well in 2020 but today New Hampshire could get competitive once again KL Harris leads by 5.7% in the polling Joe Biden led by double digit margin he eventually won it by just over seven if comell Harris leads by five her margin of Victory here is going to be very very narrow especially considering the former president's success here in the past New Hampshire is going to be a lean Blue State but it's definitely going to be one to watch just like Virginia it has the potential of flipping red and finally in the Sunshine State of Florida 30 electoral votes this used to be the ultimate Battleground state but that is no longer the case and it's been hugely beneficial to the Republican party they no longer have to fight for Florida this is just a state that they basically know that they are going to win in 2016 Donald Trump barely won Florida in 2012 it was the closest state in the entire country the only state decided by a margin of two points or less and in 2020 everybody thought Joe Biden was at least going to do better than Hillary Clinton but instead Trump won by three times the margin against spiden that he won by against Clinton and so looking at polling today there's no doubt that Trump is going to win the state for a third time in a row the hill and everon college has them ahead by Five Points Florida is going to be lean red but in the end he can definitely win by upwards of 7 to 10 percentage points this is a state is not going to go Blue for a very long time at 8:30 p.m. voting will end in Arkansas and of course that is going to be a safe State for the former president 30 minutes later at 900 p.m. another 157 electoral votes will be up for grabs and just like before many of these states are easily going to go to Donald Trump both of the dtas all of Nebraska except the second district which is lean blue Trump is also going to carry Wyoming Kansas and Louisiana and the only state I can give outright right now to kabala Harris is Colorado it is going to be likely blue not even a 15-point margin Joe Biden won it by 14 points KL Harris probably going to win it by just over half up in Minnesota this is the home state of Tim Walls kamla Harris's running M walls is the incoming governor of the state and he is relatively popular in Minnesota he's definitely given Harris a boost here the vice president leads by just over five points in the polling but honestly this is not good because before K Harris chose Tim Walls and before KL Harris became the Democratic nominee when it was still Joe bod in the race he was probably going to lose Minnesota but still KL Harris has improved off of Biden from 3 months ago but she is still doing worse than Joe Biden in 2020 and Joe Biden did not run with the literal State's Governor as his running mate KL Harris with walls on the ticket now for over a month she leads by just five percentage points so this is pretty abysmal for the Democrats yes Harris is still the favor to win but a state that hasn't gone red since 197 two shouldn't be this competitive in neighboring Wisconsin Harris's Advantage with walls is going to spill over the Border somewhat she's going to do a little better in Wisconsin than she otherwise would have and so generally Wisconsin is the most conservative out of the four upper Midwestern states but this time around is probably going to be Pennsylvania looking at polling in Wisconsin today K Harris leads in the latest poll by 4% this poll conducted by Marquette University and yes commis might be leading but Democrats have a lot to worry about here Wisconsin polls have been notorious for overestimating Democrats just look at what happened back in 20120 Joe Biden was supposed to win the state by nearly seven points it was basically going to be a likely blue state in the end he won by less than 1% he won by 10% of the margin he was supposed to win by and so KLA Harris winning by 4% of the most recent poll up by one point in the polling average that means absolutely nothing she is is not in a winning position right now but based on just the numbers alone she is going to get this one single Battleground state wiconsin is going to be lean blue on our map in Michigan Trump is actually doing much better than expected according to the only poll released since the debate this one conducted by Insider Advantage Donald Trump actually leads he's ahead by 1% this is just another example of the data getting better and better for the former president after that Stellar debate performance and so Michigan is going to to be a tilt red state if Trump wins Michigan the election is over K has has no chance if she can't even carry the Wolverine state she has no Pathway to the presidency up in New York though KLA Harris is going to win she leads by 14 points New York is going to vote likely blue for the first time in 50 years we also have down in Arizona another pretty competitive race with Donald Trump and KLA Harrison a tie according to the most recent poll but then the three next polls all have Trump leading and so we're going to take the most recent of those which is this Insider Advantage poll from late August Trump leads by 1% Arizona is going to be a tilt Red State but again if Donald Trump can win Michigan if he wins Arizona Pennsylvania there's no way he's not going to win the election this puts him in a very good spot in New Mexico we do have a single poll com Harris leads by double digit margin this is probably overestimating her this poll was also conducted relatively recently but looking at the hill and Emerson College's track record they do tend to lean slightly to the left I would expect Harris to win by just under seven points as she and the Democratic party as a whole are still having issues with Hispanic voters but on our map it is going to be a likely Blue State and finally in Texas 40 electoral votes this is big for Republicans they have to win this state in 2020 there was some doubt as to whether Trump would actually be able to do that but there is absolutely no question today Donald Trump is going to win the Lone Star State for a third time in a row in Texas Trump leads by seven points in the polling average and according to the most recent poll this one again conducted by Emerson College in the hill which like I said does tend to lean left Trump leads by Four Points so the state is going to be lean red on our map but in the end he's going to win by a much larger margin an hour later at 1 p.m. this is the final poll closing with any competitive States and that of course is Nevada Montana and Utah that were easily going to go to Trump while Iowa is likely red but in the Silver State we have a pretty interesting race no Republican has won Nevada since 2004 but Trump today has the opportunity to win the state a state he's never won before for the first time in the most recent Insider Advantage poll the former president leads by 1% I imagine after this debate performance he'll be leading by even more Nevada is another one of those States that really did overestimate Joe bid in the last election KL Harris's 0.6% lead in the polling average it is nowhere near enough and many of them are coming from older polls that do tend to over sample Democrat voters and so Nevada is going to be a tilt red state which means that Trump will go six for seven of the Battleground States the only one Harris is favored in right now is Wisconsin and that's really only because it neighbors Minnesota at 11:00 p.m. polls will close in the three Pacific States and Idaho obviously Idaho is going to be solid red we're going to fill in these states pretty quickly California Washington will be safe blue while Oregon is going to be likely for the vice president and finally at 1:00 a.m. eastern time the election will finally end with voting ending in Alaska and Hawaii the two non-continental US states of course Trump will win in Alaska and Harris in Hawaii and So based on the newest poll conducted from every single state a lot of this data came out after that presidential debate on September 10th Donald Trump is on track to easily win his reelection to a second non-consecutive turb with 302 electoral votes to Comm Harris's 236 thank you guys so much for watching make sure you like comment and subscribe right now for more content like this leading up to the election in November and join my Discord server Link in the description below